Trade May Still Be the Ballast in U.S.-China Relations―At Least for Now
August 10, 2020
Claire Reade
Growing Tensions
Since Covid-19 deluged the United States, a barrage of U.S. hard-edged actions against China has hit, targeting concerns ranging from national security and technology to human rights and China’s territorial claims. We have seen sanctions related to Xinjiang and Hong Kong, a formal declaration of opposition to China’s maritime claims in the South China Sea, restrictions on Chinese state-owned media, tightening limits on Huawei technology, the removal of licenses for Chinese telecom giants, investigations and penalties for academics with ties to the Thousand Talents program, visa restrictions, possible bans on Chinese software, the closing of China’s Houston consulate, and bans on popular apps TikTok and WeChat. The tempo of new U.S. restrictions and ferocity of negative rhetoric are increasing.
Meanwhile, China has canceled U.S. press visas, closed an important U.S. consulate in China, blamed the United States for the protests in Hong Kong, and implemented a draconian national security law that hobbles Hong Kong’s democracy, all the while ramping up blunt, nationalist, and now anti-U.S. rhetoric.
But somehow, even as the policy fireworks explode on both sides, the Phase One trade deal, the centerpiece of U.S.-China commercial relations, is still being implemented. China has further opened its financial markets and is bringing down non-tariff barriers. How is this still possible? Are improving trade conditions in China for U.S. firms sustainable, or will trade fall victim to the broader hostilities?
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