Forecast 2025 : China Adjusts Course
October 20, 2020
Houze Song et al.
SUMMARY OF BASE CASES
This forecast product has four components: economy, politics, technology, and energy. Each section contains the lead analyst’s base case calls, followed by specific assumptions and leading indicators, and then in-depth analysis of each base case with assigned probability. Each section then concludes with a less likely secondary scenario as a complement to the base case.
This analytical product has been a collective MacroPolo endeavor. We harnessed our specialized knowledge and our broad understanding of how China functions to arrive at a comprehensive assessment of the country’s trajectory.
It was a challenging process to say the least, as all attempts at forecasts are. Yet through it all, this very exercise sharpened and disciplined our own thinking. Whether you agree with our assessment, we hope you find it as useful and clarifying as we did in creating it.
[원문 바로가기]